What areas are likely to have the toughest tier restrictions when lockdown ends?

With the lockdown in England set to end on December 2, a tiered system of restrictions will return, according to the Government.

Rules for Christmas gatherings have yet to be decided though speculation is mounting that bans on indoor gathering and limits on the number of people who meet could be lifted.

But SAGE health experts say for every day the rules are eased the country would need five days of ‘lockdown’ to bring the virus back under control.

Business bosses have called for clarity on what happens after lockdown arguing that firms have been left to rely on ‘speculation and rumour’ without a clear pathway out of lockdown.

The organisation is also asking for scientific evidence to back up future restrictions, as well as an economic impact assessment of the latest lockdown.

In Greater Manchester – which fought hard against the Government over Tier 3 restrictions before the second lockdown was imposed – Mayor Andy Burnham said there’s a strong chance the area will once again be under the highest restrictions.

It is not yet clear whether the Government will stick to the original tiering system – there is suggestion that it will be adapted to take into account learnings from the original model, Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said on Tuesday.

The latest data shows which parts of the country are set to be experiencing high rates of infection on and after December 2.

It is those areas that are likely to face the toughest levels of restrictions, reports The Mirror.

In England, Hull, Swale, Hartlepool, East Lindsey, Dudley and Stoke-on-Trent are predicted to have some of the highest infection rates.

A map, created by Covid-19 researchers, projects red zones across almost all of England and swathes of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on December 2.

Imperial College London’s research and map suggest infection rates will remain high in parts of all four nations.

The places in red are projected to be coronavirus hotspots on December 2

View the full interactive map here.

Just under 300 local authorities have an 80 per cent or greater chance of being a hotspot on December 2, according to the study.

Hull, Swale, Hartlepool, East Lindsey, Dudley and Stoke are followed by Kirklees, Oadby and Wigston, Bradford, Rochdale, Leicester and Thanet.

Others at risk of being placed in Tier 3, or a new equivalent, include Greater Manchester, the North East, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Scarborough, Bristol and Lincolnshire.

Researchers from Imperial College London define a hotspot as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 of the population per week.

Areas with the lowest probability of becoming a hotspot in a fortnight include West Suffolk, Lancaster, Tendring and Colchester in England; Cardiff, Gwynedd and Conwy in Wales; Highland, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aryll and Bute in Scotland; and Lisburn and Castlereagh, and Newry, Mourne and Down in Northern Ireland.

About 60 local authorities have weekly infection rates higher than 400 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to November 13, according to a study by the PA news agency.

About 35 more are have rates between 300 and 400.

Hull has the highest infection rate in England – 760.6 in the week up to November 13, up from 731.8 in the previous seven days).

It is followed by Hartlepool (596.8), Swale (589.7), Blackburn with Darwen (575.2), Oldham (568.5),.

Dudley (565.9), Stoke-on-Trent (557.8), East Lindsey (554.6), Kirklees (553.4) and North East Lincolnshire (537.7) round out the top ten.

Areas recording the biggest week-on-week jumps include Boston (up from 233.7 to 470.3, with 330 new cases); Thanet (up from 290.3 to 520.0, with 738 new cases); and East Lindsey (up from 347.9 to 554.6, with 786 new cases).

The Imperial College London map, which is updated daily, uses figures on daily and weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling to calculate the probability that a local authority will become a hotspot.

It also gives estimates on whether cases are likely to increase or decrease, and the probability of the R number being greater than one.

Deaths have been rising during the second wave of the virus (Image: COBR)

If R is higher than one it indicates cases will continue to increase.

The predictions assume no change in current interventions, such as lockdowns or school closures, beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

An increase in cases in a local authority can be due to a rise in testing, which the model does not account for, the researchers said.

It also does not take demographic factors into consideration.

Here is the rolling seven-day rate of new cases of Covid-19 for every local authority area in England.

The figures, for the seven days to November 13, are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government’s testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).

The rate is expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.

Data for the most recent four days (November 14-17) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.

A majority of areas in England (232 out of 315) have seen a rise in case rates.

Hull continues to have the highest rate in England, with 1,976 new cases recorded in the seven days to November 13 – the equivalent of 760.6 cases per 100,000 people.

This is up slightly on 731.8 cases per 100,000 in the seven days to November 6.

Hartlepool has the second highest rate, up sharply from 407.8 to 596.8, with 559 new cases.

Swale is in third place, where the rate has risen from 284.5 to 589.7, with 885 new cases.

Areas recording the biggest week-on-week jumps include Boston (up from 233.7 to 470.3, with 330 new cases); Thanet (up from 290.3 to 520.0, with 738 new cases); and East Lindsey (up from 347.9 to 554.6, with 786 new cases).

The list has been calculated by the PA news agency and is based on Public Health England data published on November 17 on the Government’s coronavirus dashboard.